Rookie Running Back Analysis

Oh, first days of school. I remember being eight years old, and being completely disillusioned by the foreignness of my new suburban New Jersey elementary school. Why do they all have Ninja Turtle lunchboxes? Why can't I get my hair to look like that? Who are all these girls laughing at me? Why am I always picked last at touch football? Where is my Mom?

It was a traumatic period, and has effectively served as a metaphor the remainder of my years. I learned some invaluable lessons though: first impressions can mean a lot, and a good debut can mask faults down the line. In the realm of fantasy football, big debuts can also mean a lot of hype. This season featured a slew of rookie backs getting some serious duty on Day One. More rookies, in fact, then I can recall (if you know another season with more rookies, please inform me).

The emergence of so many rookies is a testament to the two-back system taking over the NFL. It's shifting the landscape of fantasy football as well: minus the top tier of backs, most good to great running backs will have someone stealing carries from them. So it creates a predicament for fantasy owners: am I willing to start a guy who is only to get me 10-15 carries? Is it worth a second round pick on a guy like Stewart of McFaddon, who might get 25 carries per-game down the line?

This season should be interesting to study, as more teams transition over to the two (and even three) back system. The division of carries should set new precendents amongst NFL coaches and fantasy owners alike, and more teams will rely on rookies than ever before.

So back to our running backs. Some look to join the popular crowds. Others were sent home early. Let us ponder together whether each is worthy of sustained success...

Matt Forte (Bears): He's not going to lead the NFL in rushing, but in one game, Matt Forte (left) solidified himself as the best weapon in the Bears offense. He has astonishing vision for a rookie: stopping momentarily, peaking around for a hole, and then smashing through it. If anything, he reminds me a bit of a young Deuce McAllister: a balance of burner and punisher. With that being said, the Bears should see more teams stacking the line as the Kyle Orton experiment will fail. The Colts defense simply did not show up, but upcoming games against Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Philly should pose a challenge. A rookie back shouldn't have to take that weekly beating, so don't be suprised to see Forte land on the injury list at some point. ETC Season Predicion: 1,050 yards rush yards, 10TD, 200 recieving yards, 1TD.

Chris Johnson (Titans): Don't let Vince Young's injury fool you: the biggest news out of Tennesse was the tres speedy Chris Johnson. They gave Johnson the ball 15 times for 93 yards, and he caught three passes, including one dive for a touchdown. He's splitting carries with Lendale White, but for such skinny guy, consider that a good thing. White is a back you want to punch it through on a 3rd and 3. Johnson is someone you throw a screen to on 2 and 10 and burst down the line. This one-two punch will have to be relied on heavily now that Vince Young is out, although Kerry Collins is probably a better all-around passer. In training camp Johnson was hailed a sleeper Rookie of the Year canidate. Now you can remove the word "sleeper". ETC Prediction: 1,080 yards rushing yards 10 TD, 450 recieving yards, 4TD

Darren McFaddon (Raiders): He's still sitting behind Justin Fargas on the depth-chart, but expect that to last for only 3 to 4 more weeks as the Raiders don't look to be very competitive at this point. McFaddon lined up at reciever and even quarterback at one point, so he'll be used aplenty this year. McFaddon didn't amaze, but his time will come. And don't worry about the shoulder injury: Lane Kiffen said McFaddon would have returned if it wasn't a rout. ETC Predicion: 930 rush yards, 6TD, 330 rushing yards, 2TD

Kevin Smith (Lions): The Lions looked awful. Smith looked... not bad for a movie director slash muted mallrat. Had a nifty touchdown as well. Smith and Rudi Johnson should split carries throughout the year. Keep in mind the Lions offense will be playing catch-up all year... dishing it out to Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams more then running the ball. ETC Prediction: 760 rushings yards, 4TD, 280 recieving yards, 1TD

Jonathon Stewart (Panthers): Splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams, he racked up 53 yards on 10 carries. In my humble opinion, he will eventually go down as the most successful running back of this group, but for now, he should see his carries increase throughout the season He'll be a second round pick fantasy pick in 2009. ETC Prediction: 970 rushing yards, 7TD, 120 recieving yards, 1TD

Felix Jones (Cowboys): He racked up a touchdown against the Browns and a huge run that was brought back by penalty. But not every team is as bad as the Browns, and Barber isn't missing any more time with those bruised ribs (9 of Jones 10 carries came after Barber left in the third quarter). Wade Philips is mum on how he wants to use Jones, but don't expect much. ETC Prediction: 370 yards rushing, 2TD, 90 yards recieving, 1TD

Ray Rice (Ravens): Starting in replacement of Willis McGahee, the Rutgers star didn't sieze the opportunity. Doesn't help that he has a rookie quarterback. Doesn't help that his fumble was returned for a touchdown. Doesn't help that McGahee is looking to return soon. But don't count him out: Rice is a speed demon, and should prove himself a legit starter sometime down the line. Just not this year. ETC Prediction: 490 rushing yards, 2TD, 210 recieving yards, 0TD

Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers): Wait, wasn't Mendenhall supposed to be the next rookie to carry them to a Super Bowl, a la Big Ben? Ah, apparently not. Willie Parker had a terrific day against the Texans, while Mendenhall had only 28 yards on 10 carries. Plus. his status as a goal-line back appears to have vanished with all those preseason fumbles. The Steelers are looking to spread the offense this year, so a banger like Mendenhall isn't going to benefit. He's a Parker-injury away from being a stud. But until that happens... ETC Prediction: 480 rushing yards, 5TD, 120 recievings yards 0TD